JOHN CHUCKMAN COMMENT: WHY HILLARY IS GOING TO LOSE – EXPLANATION OF A WELL-KNOWN POLLING PROBLEM   Leave a comment

John Chuckman

COMMENT TO AN ARTICLE IN THE GUARDIAN

 

Hillary is going to lose, no matter how hard the press tries to bolster her.

Trump has his flaws, but I think we can all see some merits too. It’s worth a try, especially considering the alternative and the risks, especially of war.

Hillary is like trying to sell some badly damaged merchandise at full price. She is widely disliked, and for good reasons.

Her rallies are poorly attended, and her book was a flop despite Amazon’s efforts at propping it up.

There is a kind of deep-seated meanness and coldness about her that many people perceive although they may not want to be quoted on it.

The polls are experiencing a well-known polling phenomenon: many people are shy of telling a stranger they support this guy with all the bad publicity, but the polling booth is private.

This effect is one of the aspects of polling where it often cannot capture the truth in advance.

Posted October 5, 2016 by JOHN CHUCKMAN in Uncategorized

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