JOHN CHUCKMAN COMMENT: THE INTERESTING CASE OF SOUTH AFRICAN FARMERS SEEKING TO SETTLE IN RUSSIA – GENERAL NOTES ON THE NEED FOR RUSSIA TO HAVE A GOOD IMMIGRATION PROGRAM – DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION   Leave a comment

John Chuckman

COMMENT POSTED TO AN ARTICLE IN RUSSIA INSIDER

 

“Russia Considers Taking in 15,000 White South African Farmers Fleeing Black Violence”

 

They would make excellent immigrants for the most part.

Hard-working and skillful, they can make a real contribution. Plus, they have financial resources.

I hope it works out for both parties, although South Africans would have quite a climate-adjustment to make.

And people are not racists, as one comment suggested, just because they want to flee a terrible situation.

South Africa’s violent crime rate, sadly, is one of the highest in the world.

_______________________

Response to a comment saying the migrants were too many at one time:

Too many too quick?

15,000 on a population of about 150,000,000?

That’s tiny.

It’s an excellent opportunity to get some very capable migrants.

By the way, Russia is definitely going to have to become more of a country of migrants.

You face the prospect of Demographic Transition.

This is what has happened to much of Europe, America, Canada, Japan, and others.

After that, you simply do not replace your existing population, and, if nothing is done, population ages and declines. Japan is facing a true crisis in this way because it has been a country that historically has been reluctant about migration. It is loaded with older people.

And there is no use talking about incentives to have babies. They’ve all been tried in various countries, and they simply do not work, unless they are so generous that they make no economic sense.

When women and men reach a certain level of prosperity, they do not want kids, at least not more than one or two.

This is a universal phenomenon with human societies, and of course there is little familiarity with it for many people since any society’s population only goes through this change once.

The past of desiring lots of kids to help with the farm and to provide a form of old-age security simply disappears in cities with women pursuing careers and couples experiencing increasing prosperity. No one then wants a huge new, high-cost, long-term burden with several kids.

So, national birth rates drop below the level required to replace the existing population. The replacement level is always an average of more than two children per couple because you must allow for infant and child mortality as the children grow up.

It would be a good idea to develop national plans for this with a well-constructed immigration program which encourages quality migrants, those with skills, ambition, and education.

By the way, such people also are not going to have lots of children, so immigration must be on-going.

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