John Chuckman

COMMENT ON IMPEACHMENT DEVELOPMENTS

 

I tend to doubt Trump will face actual impeachment.

The reason for saying that is because impeachment is a political measure, not strictly a legal one. Each Senator voting in a trial really only has to answer to his or her own political constituents about the vote, whether it is more widely regarded as warranted or not.

The trial is conducted in the Senate where the Republicans command a majority. It is a slim majority, but conviction requires a super-majority of two-thirds of members.

Despite Trump’s countless blunders and stupidities, I doubt, as things stand, that a case can be made that would command a super-majority vote.

However, that could change. Politics does resemble Heraclitus’s metaphor for history, the impossibility of being able to step into the same river twice since the waters were always flowing.

The House Committee investigation works to associate Trump’s name with something unpleasant day after day in the press. They will, of course, constantly monitor for shifts in public opinion. And, in the course of going through evidence, they could always come up with a surprise.

At the same time, we have other developments and possibilities. Like some real dirt coming out on Joe Biden in connection with Ukraine. And the same even for Obama and his key people. The coup in Ukraine was a dirty operation, so again there could be surprises in store. The same may be said of Russia-gate efforts. That was a dirty operation with authority undoubtedly coming from the highest level, and it is always possible, but I think not very likely, that we could see some big-name politicians unpleasantly surprised.

Trump himself can change the dynamic. His announcement that he just won’t cooperate with legal demands for documents is not a really terrific way to proceed, but then this is a bull-headed man represented by a bull-headed lawyer. Something of a Constitutional crisis could develop along the way.

Trump is working to change the political calculation, too. I think that’s at least in part what his move in Syria represents. There is a significant number of 2016 supporters who have been alienated by his complete failure to deliver on promises about getting out of the Middle East and establishing better relations with Russia.

What he has done in Syria is a small step, and it may not be enough to recapture the alienated.

But even that small step has aroused anger from other quarters, including some Republican politicians. That’s because his decision touches Israeli interests, literally the third rail of American national politics. Trump likely thought he’d bought enough good will with all his giveaways to Israel to get away with a decision he must surely have known would not be viewed favorably.

If so, he figured wrong. Netanyahu and other prominent politicians in Israel are used to getting just about everything they want now from the United States. And they wanted American forces in northwestern Syria helping Syrian Kurds fight the Syrian government, creating a big ongoing problem for that government.

Now, instead, they see a situation whose outcome is uncertain. One that could even possibly see the government of Syria re-establish its authority in the northeastern region by working with the Kurds while Putin whispers helpful things in Erdogan’s ear about not going too far with his invasion, and they don’t like it. The Israelis have big clout with traditional Republicans.

So, again, in terms of the political calculus of impeachment, it is not clear whether the initiative in Syria made his situation even worse.

 

AFTERNOTE:

Not long after writing this, I find in a major news source: “Trump Agrees on Need for Sanctions Against Turkey, Wants Something ‘Tougher Than Sanctions’” And this comes only just after the Turks have got rolling.

See what I mean about the third rail?

John Chuckman

COMMENT POSTED TO AN ARTICLE BY PHILIP M GIRALDI IN SOUTHFRONT

 

“JEFFREY EPSTEIN RIP: BUT MANY MORE QUESTIONS REMAIN TO BE ANSWERED”

 

https://southfront.org/philip-m-giraldi-jeffrey-epstein-rip-but-many-more-questions-remain-to-be-answered/

 

Just an excellent summary and survey of the many issues around the case.

If someone can die under the circumstances Epstein did – a very high-profile person under supervision in a jail and after a previous effort – then there seems little reason for optimism about the case being meaningfully carried on or any new revelations coming.

The rot at the top of America’s power establishment – the result of its wielding close to absolute power for so very long – is yet again revealed, and yet again, the revelation will likely lead nowhere.

Lead nowhere, as with Seth Rich. Or Loretta Lynch. Or the DNC. Or Hillary Clinton. Or Debbie Wasserman Schultz. Or John Brennan. Or James Comey. Or 9/11. Or, indeed, John Kennedy.

Here are two additional facts I’ve just learned from separate sources about the Epstein matter.

One, he was in solitary confinement. For what possible reason? He was the kind of prisoner who was no danger to anyone else. And what happened then with the regular checks that are supposed to be part of solitary confinement in any modern prison?

Two is the fact that, apparently, weeks ago, Epstein told his jailers that his life was in danger, that there were people who wanted to kill him.

And where is the surveillance video that is just a normal part of any modern institution?

Readers might enjoy:

 

https://chuckmanwordsincomments.wordpress.com/2019/08/10/john-chuckman-comment-jeffrey-epstein-kills-himself-just-as-the-fun-of-revelations-was-about-to-begin/

 

AFTERNOTES:

Other sources contradict the report of solitary confinement.

Epstein is said to have been put on “suicide watch” after the first “attempt.” That apparently requires having a cellmate and having guards check frequently around the clock.

But he was removed from “suicide watch” two weeks before his death, a move requiring the signature of a prison psychologist and the warden. Resources are tight, and it is reasonable to try minimizing the cost of “suicide watches,” but, still, here was a case with an actual recent “attempt.”

As far as guards checking frequently, the prison was shorthanded with guards working mandatory overtime.

Epstein apparently was put into a cell with another inmate, but the other inmate was transferred and not replaced. So, he was alone.

I have seen no explanation for the lack of a video record.

Someone quite familiar with that prison, a person with a criminal background, said the cells contain literally nothing that could be used for suicide. Even the bed sheets are made of special paper.

You would have to obtain anything of that nature from outside, but that would not be difficult since many important prisoners receive things they are not supposed to have by bribing staff.

In reading the mainline press, one senses an effort to avoid the many controversial associations with this case. There is a frequent pooh-poohing of “conspiracy theories,” something hardly convincing.

Since procuring and exploiting underage girls is already an extremely sensitive and attention-getting topic, it is easy to blur over other matters.

The mainline press insists on calling Epstein a billionaire and financier, assertions for which there appears to be no solid evidence. Again, a convenient blurring device.

And of course, unexplained large amounts of money always are viewed as extremely suspicious matters by intelligence services.

EPSTEIN CASE REFERENCES:

https://chuckmanwordsincomments.wordpress.com/2019/08/14/john-chuckman-comment-the-gift-that-just-keeps-giving-jeffrey-epstein-fascinating-new-facts-about-his-imprisonment-and-before-more-big-names-associated-with-him-and-a-big-and-highly-suggestiv/

https://chuckmanwordsincomments.wordpress.com/2019/08/13/john-chuckman-comment-some-new-observations-on-the-death-of-jeffrey-epstein-why-i-believe-it-impossible-for-him-to-have-killed-himself-what-this-death-vividly-demonstrates-about-america/

https://chuckmanwordsincomments.wordpress.com/2019/08/15/john-chuckman-comment-a-word-on-conspiracy-theories-reported-details-of-jeffrey-epsteins-death-just-raise-doubts/

https://chuckmanwordsincomments.wordpress.com/2019/08/10/john-chuckman-comment-jeffrey-epstein-kills-himself-just-as-the-fun-of-revelations-was-about-to-begin/

https://chuckmanwordsincomments.wordpress.com/2019/08/11/john-chuckman-comment-more-intriguing-bits-on-jeffrey-epsteins-suicide-in-custody-an-excellent-piece-by-philip-m-giraldi/